Last September 30, the federal used-EV tax credit — worth up to $4,000 — died with the One Big Beautiful Bill. The consensus prediction was a price spike to fill the gap. Instead, new-EV listing prices have fallen more than 12% since the credit ended, and that decline is dragging the used side down with it — even while gas-driven demand pushes hybrids up.
- New EV listings are down 12% since the credit ended (Cars.com/Recurrent) — the subsidy's death made used EVs cheaper, not pricier. Shop the dip.
- A 2022 Model 3 that listed near $30k with the credit now transacts in the mid-$20s in many metros — use exact-VIN comparables to catch mispriced listings.
- EVs shed ~14%/year vs 8% for gas cars — that depreciation is your discount if you buy at 3 years old, your loss if you buy new.
- Home charging runs ~$0.05/mile vs ~$0.14 for gas at $4.60 — the running-cost gap does the tax credit's old job.
01Buy the Post-Credit Dip Before the Market Reprices
The credit wasn't really going to buyers — it was holding sticker prices up. When it vanished, automakers with EV inventory targets had to do the discounting themselves. Meanwhile three years of leased EVs are flooding off-lease into the used market at once. More supply, honest stickers: cheaper cars.
The federal used-EV credit — worth up to $4,000 — died last September 30, yet prices fell anyway: a 3-year off-lease EV wave (Recurrent) is flooding supply faster than demand can absorb it.
Source: Recurrent, Cars.com, CarmaDeal cost model02Your 3-Year Buying Window, by the Numbers
A 2022 Model 3 that listed near $30k with the credit's help now transacts in the mid-$20s in many metros. Per-mile running costs are a third of a gas car at today's pump prices. The catch has simply moved from price to depreciation and battery risk — both checkable.
03Run These Three Checks or Walk Away
- Battery state of health — insist on a report (built-in menu on Teslas; third-party scans for others). Below ~88% on a 3-year-old car, negotiate hard or walk.
- Depreciation curve — EVs still fall faster than gas cars. Our cost model puts a typical 3-year-old EV at ~14%/yr versus 8% for mainstream gas. Buy the dip; don't buy at a fake peak.
- Charging reality — home charging makes the math sing; 100% DC fast-charging roughly doubles the energy cost and stresses the pack.
Battery state of health is the whole game: target ≥88% on a 3-year-old car, and prioritize home charging — at ~$0.05/mile you're paying roughly a third of gas-equivalent energy cost.
Source: CarmaDeal cost model