How the CarmaDeal Score works
By the CarmaDeal team · Last updated: September 26, 2026
Every score is computed by a deterministic formula — the same inputs always produce the same score. No hidden judgment calls.
The formula
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Asking price vs. market range | 45% | The price against live comparable listings near your ZIP, adjusted for seller type, CPO status, and condition |
| Mileage vs. expected | 15% | Odometer vs. ~12,000 miles/year for the model year |
| Accident, title & ownership history | 15% | Title brands (salvage/rebuilt/flood), reported accidents, owner count |
| Recall & safety flags | 10% | Model-level NHTSA recall campaigns and complaint volume; only a VIN-verified result is treated as open for that vehicle |
| Estimated 5-year cost | 10% | Projected fuel, insurance, and maintenance relative to price |
| Listing transparency | 5% | Penalty when critical details (VIN, mileage, trim…) are omitted |
Score bands and verdicts
Every scored report ends in one of three verdicts: Buy, Negotiate, or Walk. The tier describes how the price compares with the market; the verdict is what to do about it.
| Score | Tier | Verdict | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90–100 | Excellent Deal | Buy | Strong buy candidate — verify the inspection and out-the-door fees before signing. |
| 75–89 | Good Deal | Negotiate | Reasonable price — open at the target offer; light negotiation. |
| 60–74 | Fair Deal | Negotiate | Market-aligned — compare alternatives and negotiate fees and reconditioning. |
| 40–59 | Weak Deal | Walk | Likely overpriced or carrying notable risk — walk unless the price comes down substantially. |
| 0–39 | Poor Deal | Walk | Materially unfavorable pricing or history — walk away. |
Risk label. “High risk” is a separate label, not a verdict. It appears when a history report shows material risk (title brands, odometer problems, serious accident language) and sits beside the verdict: a car can be a fair price and still carry a high risk label. Read both before you commit.
Vehicle history & optional consolidation
The 15% history factor of the Deal Score is not scored by default — its weight is redistributed across verified factors because listing claims about accidents and title status are unverified. History Analyzer remains a separate tool: upload the seller's CARFAX or AutoCheck to the history report analyzer for deterministic findings with page citations. When an account has both reports for the exact same 17-character VIN, CarmaDeal asks for explicit consent before creating a new consolidated report. It never overwrites either original and never averages two scores; it reruns the stored deterministic Deal Score input after replacing only the unverified history factor. Critical history findings remain non-compensatory and can cap the consolidated decision score. A numeric consolidated score is withheld when the market snapshot is stale, fewer than three comparable listings support it, the history report is stale, or history evidence confidence is too low. AI narrative is never used as a scoring input.
How your report is built
We license commercial automotive data feeds used across the industry and combine them with federal safety and fuel-economy data. We don't publish our specific vendor list.
Confidence & when we refuse to score
Every score carries a confidence level based on comparable-listing count: High (20+), Medium (8–19), Low (3–7). Below 3 comparables we withhold the score entirely rather than guess — you'll see "Insufficient data to provide a confident score for this specific trim/location."